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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 21.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 13.0 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.9 | 24.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 13.0 | 16.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | MIN | 14.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.4 | 9.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
Championship week streamers - maximize ceiling for Week 17 finals
Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB). Darnold faces CAR (18th vs QB), SEA 7.5-pt favorites. Safer floor if Love can't go.
XGB 26.7% boom, only 23.7% bust. LV allows 8.5 fppg to TEs (worst quartile). Engram trending up with recent 10+ games.
With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed should see increased targets in SEA's pass-first offense vs weak CAR secondary.
⚠️ Avoid: Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson
See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.
Championship Week 17 presents a favorable matchup against Kitty's Piggy Skins (114.6 projected). Our ace in the hole is the ARI @ CIN shootout (53.5 total) where Jacoby Brissett faces the league's 27th-ranked pass defense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains our anchor as WR2 overall against Carolina's porous secondary. Key concerns include Jordan Love's questionable status against Baltimore and Rashee Rice's IR designation. With optimal lineup construction, we project 130+ points - enough to secure the championship.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 21.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.0 | 11.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 14.2 | 15.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.0 | 16.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.4 | 9.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.8 | 9.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 16.2 | 14.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 9.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 13.7 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | 21.1 | --- |
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | --- |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | --- |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR | 12.5 | --- |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE | 10.8 | --- |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | RB/WR/TE | 0.0 | --- |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | --- |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 8.9 | --- |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.9 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Darnell Mooney (bench) | WR | BE | 5.9 | --- |
| Deebo Samuel (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 18.7 | --- |
| Tyler Warren (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM, 53% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 26.7% BOOM, 21.0% BUST (this week). QUESTIONABLE status + BAL defense (14th vs QB) + low 40.5 total = downside. ECR QB27 only 11.3 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).
Context: ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical high). XGB: 13.5% BOOM (this week - conservative). MC dominates given elite CIN matchup (27th vs QB). 53.5 game total = shootout. QB8 in ECR with 21.0 FP proj. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 15-27).
Context: ECR: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM, 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 48.2% BUST (this week - concerning). MIA 14th vs RB is moderate. 45.5 game total helps. ECR RB15 with 15.8 proj. Trust MC moderate mode over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within range 8-20).
Context: ECR: 15
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% BOOM, 37.6% BUST (this week). NO 18th vs RB moderate. Low 38.5 total hurts. ECR RB38 at 8.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 6-15).
Context: ECR: 38
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 9.0% BOOM, 57.7% BUST (this week - very high bust). HOU 8th vs RB tough. Low 39.5 total. ECR RB17 at 15.2 seems optimistic. Downgrade to lower moderate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within range 8-18).
Context: ECR: 17
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE (historical - 61% BUST). XGB: 9.6% BOOM, 60.4% BUST (this week). Both signals say bust risk. LV 24th vs RB is favorable though. ECR RB45 at 6.9 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 6-14).
Context: ECR: 45
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM, 70% BUST (historical - bad profile). XGB: 11.9% BOOM, 59.9% BUST (this week). Chiefs may rest starters. DEN 9th vs RB. Low 36.5 total. ECR RB35 at 10.0 proj. Mode: MODERATE (at risk). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 7-16).
Context: ECR: 35
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% BOOM, 22.6% BUST (this week). XGB conservative but ECR WR2 with 26.9 proj is massive. CAR 12th vs WR decent. SEA 7.5-pt favorite = balanced script. Override XGB with expert consensus. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 21-36).
Context: ECR: 2
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 49% BUST (historical - volatile). XGB: 16.9% BOOM, 21.5% BUST (this week). Playing with Brissett in shootout helps. SEA 2nd vs WR is ELITE defense - major downgrade. ECR WR20 at 14.3 too high. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 8-20).
Context: ECR: 20
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 16.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% BOOM (this week - highest on roster!). Agreement on BOOM. CIN 27th vs QB means high passing volume. 53.5 game total = shootout. ECR WR32 seems too low. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 16.0 pts (within BOOM range 12-28).
Context: ECR: 32
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: Confirmed OUT on IR. Zero fantasy value Week 17.
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.6% BOOM, 42.6% BUST (this week - concerning). MIN 6th vs WR is tough. But DET offense elite, 44.5 total. ECR WR12 with 15.8 proj. Split difference - moderate with upside. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 15.0 pts (within range 10-20).
Context: ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM, 55% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 51.5% BUST (this week). BAL 22nd vs WR moderate. Low 40.5 total + Love questionable = downside. ECR WR37 at 10.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 8-18).
Context: ECR: 37
MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 55% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 18.8% BOOM, 56.0% BUST (this week - high bust). TEN 19th vs TE moderate. Low 38.5 game total limits ceiling. ECR TE6 with 12.9 proj. Trust ECR floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 6-14).
Context: ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM 14.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC: 21% BOOM, 53% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 26.7% BOOM, 21.0% BUST (this week). QUESTIONABLE status + BAL defense (14th vs QB) + low 40.5 total = downside. ECR QB27 only 11.3 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 49% BUST (historical - volatile). XGB: 16.9% BOOM, 21.5% BUST (this week). Playing with Brissett in shootout helps. SEA 2nd vs WR is ELITE defense - major downgrade. ECR WR20 at 14.3 too high. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 8-20).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: Confirmed OUT on IR. Zero fantasy value Week 17.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% BOOM, 37.6% BUST (this week). NO 18th vs RB moderate. Low 38.5 total hurts. ECR RB38 at 8.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 6-15).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 5.5 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 22% BOOM, 40% BUST (historical - risky). XGB: 10.6% BOOM, 59.7% BUST (this week). High 49.5 total = lots of points allowed. ATL offense can score. ECR DST7 at 7.2 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 6.0 pts (within range 5-12).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE (historical - 61% BUST). XGB: 9.6% BOOM, 60.4% BUST (this week). Both signals say bust risk. LV 24th vs RB is favorable though. ECR RB45 at 6.9 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 6-14).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 3% BOOM, 70% BUST (historical - bad profile). XGB: 11.9% BOOM, 59.9% BUST (this week). Chiefs may rest starters. DEN 9th vs RB. Low 36.5 total. ECR RB35 at 10.0 proj. Mode: MODERATE (at risk). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 7-16).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 55% | BOOM: 10%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 10% BOOM, 55% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 51.5% BUST (this week). BAL 22nd vs WR moderate. Low 40.5 total + Love questionable = downside. ECR WR37 at 10.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 8-18).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 16.2 | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH | |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 21.1 | 18.4 | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 12.1 | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 9.0 | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 18.5 | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW | |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 9.0 | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 10.8 | 11.9 | 11% | 34% | 55% | LOW | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.5 | 12.9 | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW | |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 0.0 | 11.8 | 9% | 26% | 64% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
Dallas Goedert: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 55%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Quinshon Judkins: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Championship week streamers - maximize ceiling for Week 17 finals
Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB). Darnold faces CAR (18th vs QB), SEA 7.5-pt favorites. Safer floor if Love can't go.
Week 17: N/A - this is championship week
XGB 26.7% boom, only 23.7% bust. LV allows 8.5 fppg to TEs (worst quartile). Engram trending up with recent 10+ games.
Week 17: N/A - championship week
With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed should see increased targets in SEA's pass-first offense vs weak CAR secondary.
Week 17: N/A - championship week
Bears D had 18.0 in Week 15. If Geno struggles on road in cold, turnovers likely. Rams facing high-powered ATL offense (49.5 total) is risky.
Week 17: N/A - championship week
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.0 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.7 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 10.0 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.6 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.2 | 15% | 55% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 11.9 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.9 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.0 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 10.3 | 14% | 53% | 0.0% | |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.4 | 13% | 44% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.6 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.6 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 7.7 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.4 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10.0 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 11.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.9 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.3 | BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.6 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.0 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 9.6 | BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.6 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 0.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 8.9 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders D/ST | 7.7 | 24% | 38% | |
| Bears D/ST | 8.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.2 | 15% | 55% |
Win Probability
Floor: -27.5 pts | Median: +12.2 pts | Ceiling: +50.1 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Quinshon Judkins | OUT | 12.3 | None available | - |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 21.0 | 4.5-28.1 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.8-23.4 | ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.7-24.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 24.0 | 6.4-30.4 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 3.7-21.7 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 15.0 | 4.2-26.4 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.0-16.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.9-17.9 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.5-18.9 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 14.0 | 6.6-27.3 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.6-18.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.6-17.9 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.3-15.4 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 4.8-25.0 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 9.0 | 4.4-21.5 | ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.1-18.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 18.5 | 7.4-29.5 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 18.5 | 11.0-31.1 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 16.1 | 6.2-27.6 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 4.5-24.4 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.1-22.1 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.8-23.4 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.9-17.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.8-16.0 | ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.1-32.7 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 11.8 | 3.6-22.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 1.9-20.4 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 1.2-18.6 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 45% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 10.1 | 3.2-18.2 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.4-21.3 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.8-16.7 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.2 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.0 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.2 | 44% @ 11.8 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.7 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.3 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.4 | 9.0 | BOOM | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 13.0 | 16.0 | BOOM | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 16.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 26.7% | 52.3% | 21.0% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.7 | 0.0 | OUT | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 21.0 | BOOM | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 9.8 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 14.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 | BOOM | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.5 | 6.0 | MODERATE | 10.6% | 29.7% | 59.7% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 9.2 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 9.6% | 30.1% | 60.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.0 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
HIGH-SCORING GAMES (favorable for skill players): - ARI @ CIN: 53.5 total - ELITE for Brissett, MHJ (shootout expected) - LAR @ ATL: 49.5 total - Good for any Rams/Falcons pieces - TB @ MIA: 45.5 total - Good environment for Irving
LOW-SCORING GAMES (unfavorable/defensive): - KC @ DEN: 36.5 total - Bad for Pacheco, Rice (if active) - TEN @ NO: 38.5 total - Limits upside for Spears, Johnson - LAC @ HOU: 39.5 total - Moderate ceiling for Hampton
SMASH SPOTS (Elite matchups): 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - WR2 overall in ECR, 26.9 FP proj. Panthers 12th vs WR. SEA 7.5-pt favorites = game script neutral. 2. Jacoby Brissett vs CIN - QB8 in ECR, 21.0 FP proj. Bengals 27th vs QB (allow 22.2 fppg). 53.5 game total = shootout. 3. Marvin Harrison Jr. vs CIN - Same shootout game. 53.5 total + weak secondary = boom potential despite low ESPN proj.
AVOID/DOWNGRADE: 1. Jordan Love vs BAL - QB27 in ECR, only 11.3 proj. Back injury concerns, tough Ravens secondary, low 40.5 total. 2. Jayden Reed vs BAL - Same bad game environment. WR37 ranking. 3. Omarion Hampton vs HOU - Texans 8th vs RB. Plus XGB has 57.7% bust probability.
CRITICAL: XGB only 37.3% accurate on mode prediction - XGB over-predicts BUST (only 23.3% of high-bust predictions correct) - XGB under-predicts BOOM (33.3% precision on boom calls) - Use XGB as ONE signal, not primary driver
Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins (114.6 projected)
Key opponent starters: - De'Von Achane (MIA RB): 22.3 proj - SAME GAME as Bucky Irving - Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR): 13.2 proj - SAME GAME as Bucky Irving - Dak Prescott (DAL QB): 21.1 proj - James Cook (BUF RB): 17.2 proj - DeVonta Smith (PHI WR): 12.5 proj
CORRELATION GAME: TB @ MIA - Our Bucky Irving vs their Achane + Waddle - High 45.5 total benefits all skill players - If MIA wins, Achane/Waddle boom = Irving may bust (game script) - Tampa should be competitive, keeping Irving involved
LOCKED-IN STARTERS: - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR vs CAR) - WR2 ECR - Jacoby Brissett (QB vs CIN) - Elite matchup, high total - Bucky Irving (RB vs MIA) - RB15, solid floor - Jason Myers (K vs CAR) - Implied 25 SEA points
SOLID STARTERS: - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR vs CIN) - Boom potential in shootout - Juwan Johnson (TE vs TEN) - TE6, safe floor - Jameson Williams (WR vs MIN) - Tough matchup but explosive
FLEX CONSIDERATION: - Omarion Hampton (RB vs HOU) - Tough matchup, high bust risk - Tyjae Spears (RB vs NO) - Moderate outlook
AVOID/BENCH: - Jordan Love (QB vs BAL) - Injury + tough matchup - Jayden Reed (WR vs BAL) - Bad game environment - Devin Singletary (RB vs LV) - Limited upside - Isiah Pacheco (RB vs DEN) - Chiefs may rest starters
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.9 | 24.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | - | 0.0 | -22.3 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 21.1 | - | 0.0 | -21.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | - | 0.0 | -17.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 13.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 14.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 16.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.5 | - | 0.0 | -12.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dallas Goedert | 10.8 | - | 0.0 | -10.8 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 9.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | - | 0.0 | -8.9 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | - | 0.0 | -8.4 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 9.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Quinshon Judkins | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.