Week 17 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-23 04:39

72%
Win Probability
+15.4
Projected Margin
CI: [-4.6 to +35.4]
2
Boom Potential
Marvin Harrison Jr., Chargers D/ST
4
Bust Risk
Juwan Johnson (56%), Bucky Irving (48%), Jameson Williams (43%), Omarion Hampton (58%)

Start/Sit Decisions

: Start over Elite matchup vs CIN (27th vs QB), 53.5 game total shootout. QB8 ECR with 21.0 FP proj.
: Start over RB15 ECR, 45.5 game total, MIA 14th vs RB moderate. Most reliable RB option.
: Start over RB17 ECR at 15.2 proj despite HOU 8th vs RB. Higher ceiling than Spears.
: Start over WR2 overall in ECR with 26.9 proj. CAR 12th vs WR, SEA 7.5-pt favorites.
: Start over Same 53.5-total shootout as Brissett. XGB 42.3% boom - highest WR boom signal.
: Start over Only rostered TE. TE6 ECR with 12.9 proj. TEN 19th vs TE moderate.
: Start over WR12 ECR at 15.8 proj. MIN 6th vs WR is tough but DET offense elite.
: Start over Implied 25 SEA points as 7.5-pt favorites. CAR 15th vs K.
: Start over XGB 55% boom probability - highest on roster. HOU offense exploitable.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett CIN20.321.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving MIA14.715.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton HOU13.011.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba CAR21.924.0BOOMMEDIUM
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. CIN13.016.0BOOMMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson TEN10.110.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams MIN14.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers CAR8.410.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST HOU6.49.0BOOMMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Championship week streamers - maximize ceiling for Week 17 finals

#1 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)
DROP: Jordan Love

Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB). Darnold faces CAR (18th vs QB), SEA 7.5-pt favorites. Safer floor if Love can't go.

#2 Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
DROP: None - hold for TE depth

XGB 26.7% boom, only 23.7% bust. LV allows 8.5 fppg to TEs (worst quartile). Engram trending up with recent 10+ games.

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
DROP: Rashee Rice (IR, 0 value)

With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed should see increased targets in SEA's pass-first offense vs weak CAR secondary.

⚠️ Avoid: Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson

See Waivers tab for full analysis and injury opportunities.

Executive Summary

Championship Week 17 presents a favorable matchup against Kitty's Piggy Skins (114.6 projected). Our ace in the hole is the ARI @ CIN shootout (53.5 total) where Jacoby Brissett faces the league's 27th-ranked pass defense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains our anchor as WR2 overall against Carolina's porous secondary. Key concerns include Jordan Love's questionable status against Baltimore and Rashee Rice's IR designation. With optimal lineup construction, we project 130+ points - enough to secure the championship.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 20.3 21.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 14.7 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 13.0 11.0
Jameson Williams WR WR 14.2 15.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 24.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 10.1 10.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR RB/WR/TE 13.0 16.0
Jason Myers K K 8.4 10.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.4 9.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 9.2 8.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 8.9 8.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 9.8 9.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 16.2 14.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.5 6.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 12.3 10.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 9.9 9.0
Rashee Rice (bench) WR IR 13.7 ---
0.0 Actual
131.0 LLM Total
122.0 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Dak Prescott QB QB 21.1 ---
De'Von Achane RB RB 22.3 ---
James Cook III RB RB 17.2 ---
DeVonta Smith WR WR 12.5 ---
Jaylen Waddle WR WR 13.2 ---
Dallas Goedert TE TE 10.8 ---
Quinshon Judkins RB RB/WR/TE 0.0 ---
Cairo Santos K K 8.4 ---
Broncos D/ST D/ST D/ST 8.9 ---
Buccaneers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.9 ---
Chase McLaughlin (bench) K BE 8.0 ---
Chimere Dike (bench) WR BE 10.7 ---
Darnell Mooney (bench) WR BE 5.9 ---
Deebo Samuel (bench) WR BE 12.8 ---
Trevor Lawrence (bench) QB BE 18.7 ---
Tyler Warren (bench) TE BE 10.8 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
114.6 Opp LLM Total
114.6 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +16.4 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 21% BOOM, 53% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 26.7% BOOM, 21.0% BUST (this week). QUESTIONABLE status + BAL defense (14th vs QB) + low 40.5 total = downside. ECR QB27 only 11.3 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

Context: ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 74% BOOM (historical high). XGB: 13.5% BOOM (this week - conservative). MC dominates given elite CIN matchup (27th vs QB). 53.5 game total = shootout. QB8 in ECR with 21.0 FP proj. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 21.0 pts (within BOOM range 15-27).

Context: ECR: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BOOM, 59% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 48.2% BUST (this week - concerning). MIA 14th vs RB is moderate. 45.5 game total helps. ECR RB15 with 15.8 proj. Trust MC moderate mode over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within range 8-20).

Context: ECR: 15

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% BOOM, 37.6% BUST (this week). NO 18th vs RB moderate. Low 38.5 total hurts. ECR RB38 at 8.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 6-15).

Context: ECR: 38

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 25% BOOM, 43% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 9.0% BOOM, 57.7% BUST (this week - very high bust). HOU 8th vs RB tough. Low 39.5 total. ECR RB17 at 15.2 seems optimistic. Downgrade to lower moderate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within range 8-18).

Context: ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE (historical - 61% BUST). XGB: 9.6% BOOM, 60.4% BUST (this week). Both signals say bust risk. LV 24th vs RB is favorable though. ECR RB45 at 6.9 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 6-14).

Context: ECR: 45

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 3% BOOM, 70% BUST (historical - bad profile). XGB: 11.9% BOOM, 59.9% BUST (this week). Chiefs may rest starters. DEN 9th vs RB. Low 36.5 total. ECR RB35 at 10.0 proj. Mode: MODERATE (at risk). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 7-16).

Context: ECR: 35

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 11.4% BOOM, 22.6% BUST (this week). XGB conservative but ECR WR2 with 26.9 proj is massive. CAR 12th vs WR decent. SEA 7.5-pt favorite = balanced script. Override XGB with expert consensus. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 24.0 pts (within BOOM range 21-36).

Context: ECR: 2

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 14% BOOM, 49% BUST (historical - volatile). XGB: 16.9% BOOM, 21.5% BUST (this week). Playing with Brissett in shootout helps. SEA 2nd vs WR is ELITE defense - major downgrade. ECR WR20 at 14.3 too high. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 8-20).

Context: ECR: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.0 | LLM 16.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 27% BOOM (historical). XGB: 42.3% BOOM (this week - highest on roster!). Agreement on BOOM. CIN 27th vs QB means high passing volume. 53.5 game total = shootout. ECR WR32 seems too low. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 16.0 pts (within BOOM range 12-28).

Context: ECR: 32

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: Confirmed OUT on IR. Zero fantasy value Week 17.

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BOOM, 44% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.6% BOOM, 42.6% BUST (this week - concerning). MIN 6th vs WR is tough. But DET offense elite, 44.5 total. ECR WR12 with 15.8 proj. Split difference - moderate with upside. Mode: MODERATE (upper). Projection: 15.0 pts (within range 10-20).

Context: ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs BAL)

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 10% BOOM, 55% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 51.5% BUST (this week). BAL 22nd vs WR moderate. Low 40.5 total + Love questionable = downside. ECR WR37 at 10.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 8-18).

Context: ECR: 37

MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 55% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 30% BOOM, 45% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 18.8% BOOM, 56.0% BUST (this week - high bust). TEN 19th vs TE moderate. Low 38.5 game total limits ceiling. ECR TE6 with 12.9 proj. Trust ECR floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 6-14).

Context: ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 16.2 | LLM 14.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 21%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC: 21% BOOM, 53% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 26.7% BOOM, 21.0% BUST (this week). QUESTIONABLE status + BAL defense (14th vs QB) + low 40.5 total = downside. ECR QB27 only 11.3 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower end). Projection: 14.0 pts (within MODERATE range 9-24).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 49% BUST (historical - volatile). XGB: 16.9% BOOM, 21.5% BUST (this week). Playing with Brissett in shootout helps. SEA 2nd vs WR is ELITE defense - major downgrade. ECR WR20 at 14.3 too high. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 10.0 pts (within range 8-20).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: Confirmed OUT on IR. Zero fantasy value Week 17.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 14% BOOM, 61% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 17.6% BOOM, 37.6% BUST (this week). NO 18th vs RB moderate. Low 38.5 total hurts. ECR RB38 at 8.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 6-15).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 5.5 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 22% BOOM, 40% BUST (historical - risky). XGB: 10.6% BOOM, 59.7% BUST (this week). High 49.5 total = lots of points allowed. ATL offense can score. ECR DST7 at 7.2 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 6.0 pts (within range 5-12).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs LV

Projections: ESPN 9.2 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 61% | MODERATE: 21% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 18% BOOM, 21% MODERATE (historical - 61% BUST). XGB: 9.6% BOOM, 60.4% BUST (this week). Both signals say bust risk. LV 24th vs RB is favorable though. ECR RB45 at 6.9 proj. Mode: MODERATE (lower). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 6-14).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 3% BOOM, 70% BUST (historical - bad profile). XGB: 11.9% BOOM, 59.9% BUST (this week). Chiefs may rest starters. DEN 9th vs RB. Low 36.5 total. ECR RB35 at 10.0 proj. Mode: MODERATE (at risk). Projection: 8.0 pts (within range 7-16).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs BAL

Projections: ESPN 9.8 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 35% | MODERATE: 55% | BOOM: 10%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC: 10% BOOM, 55% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 12.9% BOOM, 51.5% BUST (this week). BAL 22nd vs WR moderate. Low 40.5 total + Love questionable = downside. ECR WR37 at 10.1 proj. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within range 8-18).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
James Cook III RB BUF 17.2 16.2 57% 31% 12% HIGH
Dak Prescott QB DAL 21.1 18.4 51% 34% 15% HIGH
Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 13.2 12.1 49% 36% 15% HIGH
Broncos D/ST D/ST DEN 8.9 9.0 29% 45% 26% MEDIUM
De'Von Achane RB MIA 22.3 18.5 13% 64% 23% LOW
Cairo Santos K CHI 8.4 9.0 13% 28% 59% LOW
Dallas Goedert TE PHI 10.8 11.9 11% 34% 55% LOW
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 12.5 12.9 9% 48% 43% LOW
Quinshon Judkins RB CLE 0.0 11.8 9% 26% 64% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

Dallas Goedert: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 21%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 55%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Quinshon Judkins: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 64%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

🎯 Priority Pickups (Injury/Opportunity Based)

Championship week streamers - maximize ceiling for Week 17 finals

#1 Sam Darnold (QB, SEA)
vs @ CAR (Good (Panthers 18th vs QB))
ESPN: 16.0 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Jordan Love

Love QUESTIONABLE vs tough BAL (14th vs QB). Darnold faces CAR (18th vs QB), SEA 7.5-pt favorites. Safer floor if Love can't go.

Week 17: N/A - this is championship week

#2 Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
vs vs LV (Elite (Raiders 28th vs TE))
ESPN: 8.0 Trend: HOT DROP: None - hold for TE depth

XGB 26.7% boom, only 23.7% bust. LV allows 8.5 fppg to TEs (worst quartile). Engram trending up with recent 10+ games.

Week 17: N/A - championship week

#3 Rashid Shaheed (WR, SEA)
vs @ CAR (Good (Panthers 12th vs WR))
ESPN: 9.5 Trend: NEUTRAL DROP: Rashee Rice (IR, 0 value)

With DK Metcalf suspended, Shaheed should see increased targets in SEA's pass-first offense vs weak CAR secondary.

Week 17: N/A - championship week

#4 Bears D/ST (D/ST, CHI)
vs vs SEA (Moderate)
ESPN: 7.0 Trend: HOT DROP: Rams D/ST

Bears D had 18.0 in Week 15. If Geno struggles on road in cold, turnovers likely. Rams facing high-powered ATL offense (49.5 total) is risky.

Week 17: N/A - championship week

⚠️ Players to Avoid

Jayden Daniels (QB)
OUT - cannot play Week 17
Kyler Murray (QB)
IR - cannot play Week 17
J.K. Dobbins (RB)
IR - cannot play Week 17
Garrett Wilson (WR)
IR - cannot play Week 17
Keenan Allen (WR)
69% bust probability, COLD trend (rolling 0.0)

📋 Quick Summary

  • ADD Sam Darnold, DROP Jordan Love - Insurance vs Love's injury
  • ADD Rashid Shaheed, DROP Rashee Rice - Replace IR player with active upside
  • CONSIDER Bears D/ST over Rams D/ST - Better matchup Week 17

MC-Based Analysis (Auto-Generated)

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
DROP Rashee Rice WR
Boom%25%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Jayden Daniels QB,
Boom%34%
Bust%30%
EV0.0
OUT: 100% (0-0)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV8.0
BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)
ADD Commanders D/ST D/ST,
Boom%24%
Bust%38%
EV7.7
BUST: 37% (-3-9) MODERATE: 39% (2-14) BOOM: 24% (7-22)
ADD Bears D/ST D/ST,
Boom%20%
Bust%30%
EV8.5
BUST: 32% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 25% (9-24)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Jayden Daniels QB 0.0 34% 30% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.0 27% 24% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.7 24% 38% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 8.5 20% 30% 0.0%
Matt Prater K 0.0 19% 54% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 10.0 18% 48% 0.0%
Devin Neal RB 9.6 18% 45% 0.0%
Harrison Mevis K 8.9 16% 48% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.2 15% 55% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 11.9 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.9 15% 48% 0.0%
49ers D/ST D/ST 8.0 14% 51% 0.0%
Rashid Shaheed WR 10.3 14% 53% 0.0%
Sam Darnold QB 15.4 13% 44% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Jayden Daniels 0.0 OUT:100% 34% 30%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:37%, BOOM:25% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Devin Neal 9.6 BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% 18% 45%
Trey Benson 8.6 BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 7.7 BUST:55%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:10% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9.4 BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 10.0 BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 11.9 BUST:29%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.9 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.3 BUST:28%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:30% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.6 BUST:69%, MODERATE:22%, BOOM:9% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.0 BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 9.6 BUST:51%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden 13.6 BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% 0% 0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Matt Prater 0.0 19% 54%
Harrison Mevis 8.9 16% 48%
Evan McPherson 9.5 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Commanders D/ST 7.7 24% 38%
Bears D/ST 8.5 20% 30%
Dolphins D/ST 8.2 15% 55%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-23 04:39

Matchup Summary

72.0%

Win Probability

+15.4
Expected Margin
131.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
114.6
Opponent (Proj)
30.2
Margin Std Dev
119.9
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -27.5 pts | Median: +12.2 pts | Ceiling: +50.1 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
RB Quinshon Judkins OUT 12.3 None available -

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 21.0 4.5-28.1 ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 11% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 15.0 4.8-23.4 ↑15+: 39% | ↓5-: 11% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 11.0 3.7-24.0 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 24.0 6.4-30.4 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 16.0 3.7-21.7 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 15.0 4.2-26.4 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 3.0-16.6 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.9-17.9 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 5.5-18.9 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 14.0 6.6-27.3 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 5% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.0 2.6-18.3 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 8.0 0.6-17.9 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 53% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 8.0 2.3-15.4 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 43% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 10.0 4.8-25.0 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 9.0 4.4-21.5 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 14% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 1.1-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Rashee Rice WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Rashee Rice

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Dak Prescott QB MED 18.5 7.4-29.5 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% Dak Prescott
De'Von Achane RB MED 18.5 11.0-31.1 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 3% De'Von Achane
James Cook III RB MED 16.1 6.2-27.6 ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 5% James Cook III
Quinshon Judkins RB LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Quinshon Judkins
DeVonta Smith WR HIGH 13.0 4.5-24.4 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 14% DeVonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle WR HIGH 12.2 3.1-22.1 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 20% Jaylen Waddle
Dallas Goedert TE HIGH 11.9 3.8-23.4 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% Dallas Goedert
Broncos D/ST D/ST HIGH 9.0 0.9-17.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Broncos D/ST
Cairo Santos K HIGH 9.0 3.8-16.0 ↑15+: 13% | ↓5-: 22% Cairo Santos

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Trevor Lawrence QB HIGH 18.8 8.1-32.7 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% Trevor Lawrence
Deebo Samuel WR HIGH 11.8 3.6-22.9 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 20% Deebo Samuel
Chimere Dike WR HIGH 10.3 1.9-20.4 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 33% Chimere Dike
Darnell Mooney WR HIGH 8.0 1.2-18.6 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 45% Darnell Mooney
Tyler Warren TE HIGH 10.1 3.2-18.2 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 21% Tyler Warren
Buccaneers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.1 1.4-21.3 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Buccaneers D/ST
Chase McLaughlin K HIGH 9.2 2.8-16.7 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 25% Chase McLaughlin

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 17% @ 24.3 59% @ 14.2 25% @ 5.9 13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 27% @ 28.7 44% @ 18.4 29% @ 7.6 18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR 27% @ 20.0 43% @ 12.0 31% @ 5.2 12.0
Omarion Hampton RB 25% @ 23.1 43% @ 12.1 32% @ 5.2 12.6
Jason Myers K 25% @ 18.2 44% @ 11.8 31% @ 6.5 11.7
Juwan Johnson TE 30% @ 14.9 45% @ 8.8 25% @ 3.8 9.4
Jameson Williams WR 29% @ 24.3 44% @ 15.6 28% @ 5.4 15.3
Jacoby Brissett QB 74% @ 21.4 2% @ 14.7 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Chargers D/ST D/ST 36% @ 14.9 42% @ 8.4 22% @ 2.8 9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST6.49.0BOOM55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR13.016.0BOOM42.3%35.3%22.4%
Jordan LoveQB16.214.0MODERATE26.7%52.3%21.0%
Rashee RiceWR13.70.0OUT24.9%45.3%29.8%
Jason MyersK8.410.0MODERATE23.2%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10.110.0MODERATE18.8%25.1%56.0%
Tyjae SpearsRB9.99.0MODERATE17.6%44.8%37.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR12.310.0MODERATE16.9%61.6%21.5%
Jacoby BrissettQB20.321.0BOOM13.5%50.0%36.4%
Bucky IrvingRB14.715.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR9.89.0MODERATE12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR14.215.0MODERATE12.6%44.9%42.6%
Isiah PachecoRB8.98.0MODERATE11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR21.924.0BOOM11.4%66.0%22.6%
Rams D/STD/ST5.56.0MODERATE10.6%29.7%59.7%
Devin SingletaryRB9.28.0MODERATE9.6%30.1%60.4%
Omarion HamptonRB13.011.0MODERATE9.0%33.3%57.7%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key Injury Updates

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): Day-to-day with back bruise - MONITOR for GB game
  • Jordan Love (GB): QUESTIONABLE - backup plan needed if he sits
  • Rashee Rice (KC): OUT (IR) - no fantasy value Week 17
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): IR - Jacoby Brissett confirmed starter

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

HIGH-SCORING GAMES (favorable for skill players): - ARI @ CIN: 53.5 total - ELITE for Brissett, MHJ (shootout expected) - LAR @ ATL: 49.5 total - Good for any Rams/Falcons pieces - TB @ MIA: 45.5 total - Good environment for Irving

LOW-SCORING GAMES (unfavorable/defensive): - KC @ DEN: 36.5 total - Bad for Pacheco, Rice (if active) - TEN @ NO: 38.5 total - Limits upside for Spears, Johnson - LAC @ HOU: 39.5 total - Moderate ceiling for Hampton

Key Matchup Analysis

SMASH SPOTS (Elite matchups): 1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs CAR - WR2 overall in ECR, 26.9 FP proj. Panthers 12th vs WR. SEA 7.5-pt favorites = game script neutral. 2. Jacoby Brissett vs CIN - QB8 in ECR, 21.0 FP proj. Bengals 27th vs QB (allow 22.2 fppg). 53.5 game total = shootout. 3. Marvin Harrison Jr. vs CIN - Same shootout game. 53.5 total + weak secondary = boom potential despite low ESPN proj.

AVOID/DOWNGRADE: 1. Jordan Love vs BAL - QB27 in ECR, only 11.3 proj. Back injury concerns, tough Ravens secondary, low 40.5 total. 2. Jayden Reed vs BAL - Same bad game environment. WR37 ranking. 3. Omarion Hampton vs HOU - Texans 8th vs RB. Plus XGB has 57.7% bust probability.

XGB Forward Validation Insights (Weeks 13-16)

CRITICAL: XGB only 37.3% accurate on mode prediction - XGB over-predicts BUST (only 23.3% of high-bust predictions correct) - XGB under-predicts BOOM (33.3% precision on boom calls) - Use XGB as ONE signal, not primary driver

Opponent Correlation Analysis

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins (114.6 projected)

Key opponent starters: - De'Von Achane (MIA RB): 22.3 proj - SAME GAME as Bucky Irving - Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR): 13.2 proj - SAME GAME as Bucky Irving - Dak Prescott (DAL QB): 21.1 proj - James Cook (BUF RB): 17.2 proj - DeVonta Smith (PHI WR): 12.5 proj

CORRELATION GAME: TB @ MIA - Our Bucky Irving vs their Achane + Waddle - High 45.5 total benefits all skill players - If MIA wins, Achane/Waddle boom = Irving may bust (game script) - Tampa should be competitive, keeping Irving involved

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS: - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR vs CAR) - WR2 ECR - Jacoby Brissett (QB vs CIN) - Elite matchup, high total - Bucky Irving (RB vs MIA) - RB15, solid floor - Jason Myers (K vs CAR) - Implied 25 SEA points

SOLID STARTERS: - Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR vs CIN) - Boom potential in shootout - Juwan Johnson (TE vs TEN) - TE6, safe floor - Jameson Williams (WR vs MIN) - Tough matchup but explosive

FLEX CONSIDERATION: - Omarion Hampton (RB vs HOU) - Tough matchup, high bust risk - Tyjae Spears (RB vs NO) - Moderate outlook

AVOID/BENCH: - Jordan Love (QB vs BAL) - Injury + tough matchup - Jayden Reed (WR vs BAL) - Bad game environment - Devin Singletary (RB vs LV) - Limited upside - Isiah Pacheco (RB vs DEN) - Chiefs may rest starters

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

No Debates Yet

Run /debate "Your question" to start a Crystal Society debate.

Examples:

  • "Should I start Player A over Player B?"
  • "Is this FA worth picking up?"
  • "What's the boom/bust outlook for Player X?"

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.5
Our Team MAE
17 players
12.7
Opponent MAE
9 players
26
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 11.9
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 21.9 24.0 0.0 -24.0
Opponent RB De'Von Achane 22.3 - 0.0 -22.3
Opponent QB Dak Prescott 21.1 - 0.0 -21.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 20.3 21.0 0.0 -21.0
Opponent RB James Cook III 17.2 - 0.0 -17.2
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 13.0 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 14.7 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 14.2 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 16.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR Jaylen Waddle 13.2 - 0.0 -13.2
Opponent WR DeVonta Smith 12.5 - 0.0 -12.5
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.0 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Opponent TE Dallas Goedert 10.8 - 0.0 -10.8
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 12.3 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.4 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 10.1 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 9.9 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 6.4 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 9.8 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent D/ST Broncos D/ST 8.9 - 0.0 -8.9
Opponent K Cairo Santos 8.4 - 0.0 -8.4
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 9.2 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 8.9 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.5 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 13.7 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Quinshon Judkins 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
4.3
Opponent MAE
9 players
8.4
Free Agent MAE
6 players
32
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent K Ka'imi Fairbairn 0.0 - 16.0 +16.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 13.5 +13.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 10.0 21.5 +11.5
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 15.0 3.8 -11.2
Free Agent K Eddy Pineiro 0.0 - 11.0 +11.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 21.0 10.6 -10.4
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 6.7 -10.1
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 22.0 12.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 12.0 2.4 -9.6
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.2 12.0 4.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 16.9 +7.9
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 6.0 13.5 +7.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 7.1 -6.9
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 8.3 -6.9
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 13.0 19.3 +6.3
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 13.0 7.1 -5.9
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 8.2 -5.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 5.0 +5.0
Opponent RB Michael Carter 11.0 - 6.5 -4.5
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 4.0 +4.0
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 12.7 -3.9
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.6 - 2.0 -3.6
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 13.0 16.5 +3.5
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 11.0 +3.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 4.0 5.6 +1.6
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 22.8 -1.0
Free Agent D/ST Chiefs D/ST 0.0 - 1.0 +1.0
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 13.2 -0.2
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.9 23.6 23.6 +0.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.1 2.0 2.0 +0.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.7 4.0 4.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 16.2 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
53%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 6.7 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
58%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 13.2 pts
90th percentile 23.5 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 24.0 pts
ESPN 21.9 pts
BUST
29%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 17.7 pts
90th percentile 30.1 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 12.3 pts
BUST
49%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 25.2 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 13.0 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 13.7 pts
OUT
100%
10th percentile 0.0 pts
Median (50th) 0.0 pts
90th percentile 0.0 pts
MC (Historical)
0% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
25% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
61%
BOOM
14%
10th percentile 2.6 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 18.5 pts
MC (Historical)
14% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 13.0 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 24.0 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
25%
10th percentile 5.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 18.9 pts
MC (Historical)
25% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
30%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 8.8 pts
90th percentile 16.6 pts
MC (Historical)
30% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
19% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 14.2 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 15.3 pts
90th percentile 26.0 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 5.5 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 9.2 pts
BUST
61%
MODERATE
21%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.2 pts
90th percentile 17.7 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 21.0 pts
ESPN 20.3 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
74%
10th percentile 4.3 pts
Median (50th) 18.4 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
74% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 6.4 pts
BUST
22%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
36%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 18.1 pts
MC (Historical)
36% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
70%
MODERATE
27%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.3 pts
Median (50th) 5.8 pts
90th percentile 15.5 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.8 pts
BUST
35%
MODERATE
55%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.2 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
De'Von Achane (RB)
De'Von Achane distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 22.3 pts
BUST
4%
MODERATE
78%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 10.9 pts
Median (50th) 16.7 pts
90th percentile 31.1 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
James Cook III (RB)
James Cook III distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 15.5 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
57% BOOM
DeVonta Smith (WR)
DeVonta Smith distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.5 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
10%
10th percentile 4.5 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 24.1 pts
MC (Historical)
10% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
44%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 11.3 pts
90th percentile 22.3 pts
MC (Historical)
44% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
49% BOOM
Dak Prescott (QB)
Dak Prescott distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 21.1 pts
BUST
32%
MODERATE
37%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 7.4 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 29.7 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
51% BOOM
Dallas Goedert (TE)
Dallas Goedert distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 10.8 pts
BUST
39%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
21%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 10.7 pts
90th percentile 23.4 pts
MC (Historical)
21% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Broncos D/ST (D/ST)
Broncos D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.9 pts
BUST
15%
MODERATE
57%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.0 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Quinshon Judkins (RB)
Quinshon Judkins distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 0.0 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 3.1 pts
Median (50th) 10.6 pts
90th percentile 22.0 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Cairo Santos (K)
Cairo Santos distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.4 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 16.2 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM